2007年3月，我给山姆发去一份邮件，对他说，至今，美国乃至世界却是依然看不懂中国。我给他推荐了一篇美国《新闻周刊》上发表的文章：《中国的天没有坍塌》。
The Sky Isn't Falling in China
The day after the Shanghai stock market fell，we saw again all the same warnings about the Chinese system and the odds of its collapse.
By Fareed Zakaria Newsweek
March 12，2007 issue——For some years economists and analysts have been wondering what it would take to scare financial markets. Wars，coups，soaring commodity prices，increased energy costs，unwinding housing markets—nothing seemed to do it。Last week we got one answer：China。The sharp plunge in the Shanghai stock market caused jitters around the world。But while the reaction pointed to the increased importance of China in global economics，it also highlighted the confusion and misunderstanding that surround the Middle Kingdom……
It might be time to admit that we really don't understand China。 The country simply does not conform to our most basic beliefs about what makes nations grow。Hernando de Soto，the Peruvian scholar，has argued persuasively that clear and strong property rights are the prerequisite for economic growth。Except that China，the fastest-growing country in human history，has an extremely unclear and weak system of property rights。Alan Greenspan has argued that the rule of law is the linchpin of market economics。Except that China has a patchy set of laws，unevenly enforced。The Washington Consensus that the World Bank and the IMF have peddled across the globe claims that if currencies don't float freely，they will produce huge distortions in the economy。China has declined that advice and yet prospers。So，instead of learning from facts and revising theory，we assume that the facts are wrong，that China is one grand charade……
We're sure that the Chinese people must hate their government，except that the only polls we have suggest exactly the opposite。 Surveys conducted in the late 1990s by the scholar Jie Chien showed 80 percent support for the political system。Last year's Pew Survey on Global Attitudes has a little-noticed question：“Are you satisfied with the state of your nation？”Less than 30 percent of Americans said they were。China topped the list，with 81 percent of those surveyed answering“yes”。Perhaps people lie to pollsters in China，but these numbers are consistent in several polls，and people in China do regularly express their opposition to corruption，environmental degradation and other specific policies。
中国的天没有坍塌
多年以来，经济学家和分析师们一直在思考：什么会使金融市场感到恐慌。战争、政变、物价飞涨、能源消耗、失控的房地产市场等因素似乎都没能做到。上周，我们得出了一个答案：中国。上海股票市场大跌引起世界范围内的神经过敏。这反映出中国对于全球经济的重要性越来越大，但同时也揭示了围绕着“中央帝国”的迷惑和不解。
我们真的不了解中国，现在可能该是承认这一点的时候了。中国不符合我们对于一个国家如何实现增长的最基本的常识。秘鲁学者赫南多。德。索托曾令人信服地说过，财产权利的清晰和稳固是经济增长的前提。中国却是个例外，这个人类有史以来增长速度最快的国家拥有一个极不清晰、极其脆弱的财产权利体系；艾伦。格林斯潘曾说过，法治是市场经济的关键。而中国是个例外，其法律体系不协调，执法不规则；世界银行和国际货币基金组织在全球各地兜售的“华盛顿共识”认为，不能自由浮动的汇率体系会导致经济严重变形。中国拒绝了这一建议，却繁荣发展。中国是一个大谜团。
我们认为，中国人不喜欢他们的政府，但民意调查却给出相反的结果：80%的中国人支持现在的政治体系、81%的人对现政府持满意态度。也许被调查者没说实话，但这些数字在几次不同的调查中是一致的，而中国人也常表达对腐败、环境退化等的不满。公民对政府的感觉是由文化、历史和感情态度等多种因素共同组成的复杂混合体。
关于报送赴美培训总结的通知
“中央和国家机关中青年干部赴美国培训”全体学员：
“中央和国家机关中青年干部赴美国培训项目”是深入贯彻全国人才工作会议精神，大力培养国际化、复合型人才的重要培训项目。为了总结赴美培训的工作经验，交流培训取得的成果，进一步做好培训工作，请你们认真搜集学习收获，总结学习体会，并将总结材料的文字版、电子版（不少于2000字）及图片资料于培训结束后一周之内报送国家外国专家局出国培训管理司成果处，以便汇编成册……
祝大家生活愉快！
国家外国专家局
出国培训管理司
2005年10月8日
